California’s feared surge of virus cases hasn’t happened




, California’s feared surge of virus cases hasn’t happened

SACRAMENTO, Calif. (AP) Close to the top of September, with coronavirus instances falling and extra faculties and companies reopening, Gov. Gavin Newsom’s administration urged restraint, citing a statistical mannequin that predicted a startling 89% enhance in virus hospitalizations within the subsequent month.

That hasn’t occurred. As an alternative, state information reveals hospitalizations have fallen by about 15% since that warning whereas the weekly common variety of new instances continues to say no whilst different extra populous states like Florida, Ohio and Illinois see will increase.

California’s excellent news is not sufficient to vary what Newsom calls his “gradual” and “cussed” method to reopening the world’s fifth-largest financial system. He once more cautioned individuals in opposition to “being overly exuberant” about these coronavirus numbers, pointing to a “decline within the fee of decline” of hospitalizations.

Whereas California’s 14-day common of hospitalizations is down, the 7-day common is up ever so barely to 2,241 sufferers. The quantity peaked in July at greater than 7,100.

“Boy, what extra of a reminder do you want than seeing these numbers start to plateau?” Newsom mentioned Monday throughout his weekly information convention.

Dr. Mark Ghaly, California’s high public well being official, mentioned Monday the state’s hospitalizations have declined partly as a result of the state is testing extra individuals, permitting public well being officers to hint optimistic instances and put individuals into “supportive isolation.”

However Brad Pollock, affiliate dean of public well being sciences on the College of California, Davis, Faculty of Drugs, mentioned this reveals fashions that attempt to predict how the coronavirus will behave are “not that nice.”

“We do not have a mannequin that precisely predicts what is going on to occur subsequent,” he mentioned.

Hospitalizations are trending youthful in Los Angeles County, the place individuals 18 to 29 now account for about 10% of all coronavirus-related hospitalizations in contrast with 5% in mid-Might. Los Angeles County Public Well being Director Barbara Ferrer mentioned it was one of many troubling traits within the nation’s most populous county with about 10 million residents.

Collectively, individuals 18 to 49 now account for 58% of all new coronavirus instances within the county.

“If you happen to have been so as to add youngsters within the combine — these are oftentimes younger individuals who could also be out socializing — people between the ages of 12 and 50 account for totally 68%,” she mentioned.

Newsom’s go-slow method has pissed off the state’s tourism trade, which is attempting to get better after seven months of shutdown. As of final week, the state has lifted its most extreme restrictions on all however 10 of the state’s 58 counties, with one other replace scheduled for Tuesday.

Earlier this month, the Newsom administration for the primary time mentioned it was OK for as much as three households to collect however solely whether it is outdoor and other people stay socially distanced.

However Newsom nonetheless has not allowed for big public gatherings or theme parks to reopen, even with modifications. The Walt Disney Co. has criticized the state for delaying reopening guidelines for theme parks, saying it contributed to the corporate’s resolution to put off 28,000 employees at its parks in California and Florida.

Even the unions representing Disney staff have modified their stance, sending Newsom a letter on Monday urging him to permit theme parks to reopen. The unions, representing about 10,000 Disneyland employees, instructed Newsom in June it was unsafe to open theme parks. However they now say Disney has a testing program and measures in place for private protecting gear and air flow.

“We’re assured that with these protocols set in place, Disneyland will have the ability to totally reopen safely,” mentioned Andrea Zinder, president of UFCW 324.

Newsom mentioned he plans to announce pointers for theme parks on Tuesday, hinting he may need totally different guidelines for several types of theme parks.

“I hope one acknowledges our stubbornness on a health-first, information pushed resolution making course of is completed with our eyes extensive open on what’s occurring now world wide,” Newsom mentioned. “We now have to keep up that vigilance so we will keep away from any additional enhance in transmission.”

A lot of the U.S. is seeing an uptick in coronavirus instances and hospitalizations, with the Midwest seeing a number of the worst spikes. The Northeast was the toughest hit within the spring, and the tri-state area of New York, Connecticut and New Jersey instituted guidelines requiring vacationers from states with a high-rate of coronavirus unfold to quarantine for 2 weeks upon getting into.

Monday, Newsom mentioned he was not contemplating comparable guidelines for vacationers to California. However he added: “We all the time keep an openness to these issues.”

“We now have finished higher than different states,” Newsom mentioned, including the share of optimistic exams in California for the coronavirus has by no means exceeded eight%. The latest weekly fee is 2.four%.

“We needed to be powerful and we have needed to be vigilant and we needed to be aware of the altering dynamics of this pandemic,” he mentioned.